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Knowledge
As we find ourselves entering the second half of 2009 I have been trying to guage the economy from a current perspective. 2008 was easily the worst year I have ever seen for our people. We have seen gas prices above $5.00 per gallon in some areas and we have witnessed the demise of major financial institutions, and american auto makers.I have felt the effects as a small business owner myself grossing only half of what did in 2007 and one third of what I did in 2006. I have had to layoff employees and I find myself working alone most of the time now. Perhaps bankruptcy attourneys were the only niche in this landslide of economic turmoil. And what average citizen that is going bankrupt can afford an attourney?
Our financial leaders threw money at this problem hoping to stimulate job growth and spending among the american people. Unemployment has slowed and I have witnessed on a 1000 mile road trip countless road and bridge projects underway, I even bought Dunkin Donuts coffee four times this week (Something I haven't done in over a year.) doing my part to stimulate the economy and my early morning brain cells. But you know what? I felt bad every time. I liken this reaction to the bodies reaction when not eating. It stores fat. I have become accustomed to not spending for fear of losing my home and not being able to provide basic necessities such as food and clothing for my family.
As I look ahead to 2010 what do I see? I have always been an optomist but looking forward I must be a realist for sake of survival. At this point in time I have alot of work for my company of two to do. This week I will be hiring my son who will be entering college in the fall to work with me and help absorb some of the workload. Why is this important? Because looking to the future I see many others doing the same. I see people outsourcing less and reverting back to mom and pop businesses of old where family members will make up most of the workforce, A good friend of mine owns an auto repair shop and while he is not twisting wrenches yet, he has downsized significantly and his wife and son are working in the office alongside of him.Things are busier now but we are in the middle of the summer when things are always busy. This is when seasonal hiring is strong and things get done such as building etc.
My point is this. If you have been laid off from your job and are collecting un-employment benefits do not become complacent in your job search. Get a job now and hang onto it for dear life. Last week I recieved two phone calls from former employees of mine from the early 2000's. They had each stated that they had been laid off from there jobs almost a year ago and that their un-employment benefits had run out and that they needed to work. I told them that unfortunately I was not hiring right now. (Remember body storing fat.) This incident triggered a moment of realization in me. I have another employee who I laid off early last December. He is going on his fifth week of an un-employment extension without a job in sight. Soon his extension will run out and he will be in deep trouble.
I believe that the economy at the end of 2009 will make 2008 look mild in comparison. The market will be flooded with complacent workers that can no longer collect un-employment benefits who will have nowhere to turn. Foreclosures will rise and the meager building that is going on now will slow. While this economic forcast is grim I feel it is important to face it this way. If not and I'm right (which I pray I am not.) there will be many hurting families this winter.
Many of the TV talking heads and some economist are now saying we could have an economic recovery without a job recovery. I don’t know how. If people are not working, how are they going to buy things and pay bills. I am also seeing something I don’t like at all with larger companies. They are outsourcing the hiring to these temporary agencies. So getting hired is nice, but you are always considered a temp worker. Which means low pay, no benefits and no raises. Another word for this is contract work. Meaning you can be laid off at a moments notice for no reason other than the contract is up. And it might be true or might not be. I am hearing more horror stories about this. I have also heard some distressing things about unemployment benefits concerning these contract temp jobs. I have to look into that tomorrow.
Both of you are absolutely on target. I recently had a respritory therapist rent a condo from me. He told me that he's been in Florida and Kansas City on contract work. Even White Cllar workers can't find sustained employment and have to win a bid to get the job. Soon the only good paying jobs will be for the government or the Mafia i'm afraid.
One industry I have been associated with for many years is the printing business. Here that business is dead. Only hiring’s are for salesman to bring in business. I have never seen it like this. Something else interesting, every morning now on the radio I am hearing Google ads for Google AdSense. The ads say if you are a mom then write about everything on your blogs and use the AdSense program. I don’t know why the ads are aimed at moms though. But it is interesting that Google is actually advertising AdSense on the radio
Sam, I took graphic arts in High school and worked in the industry for a short time before becoming a machinist and working for General Electric. Back then (Mid 80's) the printing industry was pretty strong, especially in the big cities but has waned with new technology over the last decade. In 1988 GE reduced the workforce from 13,000 to 2500 in my area. They outsourced the jobs mostly to Mexico and a few to some non-union American shops . These jobs have never come back. Dupont just anounced the closing of their films plant in Florence, SC (About 40 miles from where I live now.) They said that the economy just could not support the plant and that it would be demolished and that there were no plans to re-build it in the future. They added 300+ workers to the unemployment line which is no drop in the bucket for an area that is now at 21% unempoloyment rate. Yes 21%. All I keep hearing from the media is how things are improving but I still don't see it. Clairsie, that's a good point you could be right there. People will be spending more time on the computer while at home that's for sure. Maybe internet advertising will be a niche market during these times.
Great article and thoughtful comments. I have heard over and over from friends looking for work that they go in for a first, second, third interview with a company. They are told by HR it's just a matter of the paperwork and they'll be hired. A week goes by, then two. They send an email or call to follow up with HR and get no return phone calls. Three weeks go by, they make another call and have to leave a message. Finally, they get through on the fourth week and are told that no one has been hired for the job yet. I believe companies just become fearful of hiring another person and try to push the work off on underqualified and/or overworked employees.
I am getting a feeling some companies are fishing now to find workers who will work for less money than they were paying before this started. Wages are terrible, yet the government numbers say productivity is up. I wonder how they get those numbers, productivity is up, yet is anyone producing what they were before the recession started.
I cannot believe that productivity is up. I believe profit margins are up because companies have cut all the fat. I am worried about quality control however. As companies downsize, fewer employees will be forced to inspect more products and companies may become a little more frugal when it comes to discarding defective merchandise especially when having to compete with foreign countries. Lorena, the problem with employment now is that companies are getting hundreds of applications for the most menial jobs. Companies have to sort through, interview, and choose and they are going to get the best for the least amount of money.
Mid summer 2009 and I don’t see any positive signs at all. The so-called stimulus money for green jobs is nowhere to be found. Local government here just says it hasn’t filtered to them yet. The only roadwork I see around here is the usual summer roadwork and the other day another bridge was closed because it partially collapsed. The extended unemployment benefits has hit a snag in my state, the state is still trying to figure out who is owed this money and who isn’t. So no one gets the extended benefits yet. Tell that to the landlord. The jobs that are out there are low paying, much lower paying than they should be actually. And I think its wrong of some employers to take advantage like that in this job market. On the other hand the small business owner is getting no help at all from the government and hasn’t in years. Its as if they are the forgotten ones, yet the small employer employs most Americans. Health insurance costs continue to go up and at this rate with low wages if someone is lucky enough to find that job, cant even afford the insurance. This administration is going to get caught up in the health care issue at the expense of other issues Im afraid. Looking on Craigslist, I am seeing some job sectors totally dry up with no job listings at all except salesman. And that means they are looking for work to be brought in. I cant wait for their to be something positive after all of this.